New York Giants will Expose New England Patriots to win Superbowl XLVI

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Feb 032012
 

Sure the New England Patriots were 13-3, but as the old adage goes: there are lies, damn lies and statistics. And in this case, that 13-3 record is lying, big time.

If you take a look around the NFL at the end of the season, there were 10 teams of any significance this year. They were, in no particular order: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and the New England Patriots.

So let’s take a look at who the Patriots really beat, or beat up on this year. Of those teams listed above, who did they play? The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. That’s it, just two teams of any significance in this past 2011-12 NFL season. And how did the Patriots do in those two games you might ask? They lost, both!!

So they were 13-1 against the dregs of the NFL, and 0-2 against teams that matter. Hmm, so what does that tell us? The Patriots are not nearly as good as the Las Vegas sportsbook have them made out to be, as why else are the Patriots 3-point favorites??

And look what they’ve done in the playoffs. They hammered a Denver team that is led by a great story in Tim Tebow, but not a very good quarterback. Yes, he’s had success, but that will be short-lived. A story for another day. Then the Patriots edged out the Baltimore Ravens, but that was more the Ravens beating themselves than New England winning. Missed play calls, a dropped winning touchdown and a missed tying field goal were key components of that win.

So now the Patriots move on to Superbowl XLVI in Indianapolis, Sunday, February 5th, starting at 6:30pm ET. They are a good team, with one of the best coaches of all time and one of the best quarterbacks of all time. But that and the schedule is what has made the Patriots this year. They have a very good offensive line, very average running game, a stud of a tight end in Rob Gronkowski, and a great inside receiver in Wes Welker.

On the defensive side, they have the worst pass defence in the NFL this season. They are pretty good against the run, but the New York Giants throw the ball, not run it. Unlike the Broncos and Ravens whose strengths were running the ball, the Giants present a lot of matchup problems for the Patriots, on both sides of the ball.

Brady will struggle at times to deal with the NFL’s best defensive line, especially when they can pass rush. And Eli Manning will be able to throw the ball down the field with impunity, with his two big play receivers, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. And don’t forget the Giants have a very good 3rd receiver in Mario Manningham.

Bottom line is that the game should be close early on, but the ongoing pressure of the Giants front four will slowly get to Brady, and the ongoing deep threats and crossing patterns of the Giants receivers will make for a very long day for New England.

Our Superbowl Handicapping:
New York Giants 31
New England Patriots 24

 Posted by luckylester at 3:45 pm  Tagged with: , , , , ,

Ravens Host Texans and Patriots Face Broncos in AFC Division Games

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Jan 102012
 

In NFL Playoff action this weekend, there is the potential for a couple of major blowouts in the AFC Divisional Playoffs.

First off, the Baltimore Ravens (12-4) host the Houston Texans (10-6) in a game (Sunday January 15, 1:00 PM ET TV by CBS) that on paper looks like a rout. The Texans bring their rookie quarterback, T.J. Yates into the Ravens’ den and it looks like they will be picked apart.

The New England Patriots (13-3) host Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos (Saturday, January 14, 8:00 PM ET TV by CBS) in another game that looks like a huge blowout. The Patriots defense is far from stellar; in fact they rank 31st in the NFL. Don’t be surprised if Tebow has another 300-plus yard performance in his second NFL playoff.

The Patriots opened up as a 13.5 point favorite and the number is getting play on both sides with only 57% of the money coming down on the Pats. The Ravens must cover 7.5 on the Pointspread over the Texans and the money is flooding in on the Ravens with 69% of the bettors giving the points.

The Totals on both games are showing some interesting movements. New England is going to score points and the Broncos have potential to score against a weak Pats defense. The Total is 51 points and the money is almost even with 55% coming in on the Over. The Ravens/Texans game is a low Total at 38 points. The money is overwhelmingly on the Under with 81% of the bettors hammering the Under.

Denver is a huge Moneyline dog at +605 and the Pats are the prohibitive favorite at -805 for good reason. If this game becomes a track meet anything can happen though. Denver is getting the lion’s share of the bets with 81% of the money coming in on Tebow and the Broncos.

The Ravens are also a huge negative number on the Moneyline at -350. The Texans are a +290 dog with the money coming in on the Texans with wishful thinkers betting the Texans at 62%.

 Posted by luckylester at 8:26 pm  Tagged with: , , , , , , ,

Green Bay Packers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Nov 152011
 

The undefeated (9-0) Green Bay Packers host the (4-5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers November 20, 2011. The Packers look like a better team than they were when they won the Super Bowl last February as they run through all of their opponents with ease so far this season.

Seemingly impossible to defend against for most defences now that Aaron Rodgers has stepped it up a notch and is firing on all cylinders. Rodgers ability to spread the ball around the field is making it tough on defenders looking to isolate players like Greg Jennings.

Struggling against the pass the Green Bay Packers defence has also stepped it up their run defence. Giving up almost 300 yards per game through the air, Green Bay’s corners have been getting smoked this season.

For the Buccaneers to compete with the Packers Josh Freeman must work the edges of the field and open up the running game. Working the outside of the field with his wide outs Freeman will open up this match for his running back LaGarette Blount.

Heading into this Week 11 NFL game the Bucs have dropped three games in row.

Freeman also needs to utilize tight end Kellen Winslow and he could be key to this game if Winslow comes into the game with the right attitude. When he isn’t a head case Winslow’s abilities are actually top shelf.

Green Bay will blow through Tampa Bay but this game should surprise most fans and is potentially a great matchup.

 Posted by IanMind at 1:15 pm  Tagged with: , , , , , ,

Green Bay Packers Will Take On Pittsburgh Steelers This Weekend

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Feb 012011
 

This weekend in Super Bowl XLV at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, the Pittsburgh Steelers will battle against the Green Bay Packers and FOX will broadcast this match at 6:30 pm ET. These teams have hit their stride at the perfect time as they have both come a long way this season.

In Super Bowl Odds the Green Bay Packers are a 3-point favorite and the over/under total for the game is set at 45.

After making the playoffs with only 10 wins, the Packers are the surprising favorites. Aaron Rodgers is the key to their success. The Packers struggled to get things going as Rodgers had a slow start to the season. The team has been nearly unbeatable when Rodgers has played at a high level.

The Packers will have an extremely difficult time running the football this week. The best rush defenses that the league has seen in years what the Steelers have. The Packers will need to rely even more heavily on the arm of Aaron Rodgers with their running game taken away.

In order to score points against this Green Bay team, the Steelers need to find a way. Even though the Green Bay had one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Steelers do have some solid weapons in their running and passing games. This season, they surrendered just 15 points per game. Whenever the Packers really need it, they seem to come up with a big sack or a turnover.

The Packers’ defense will capitalize on their mistakes otherwise the Steelers will need to be sure to protect the football.

 Posted by IanMind at 2:36 am  Tagged with: , , ,

Sunday Clash Between Pittsburgh Steelers And New York Jets

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Jan 182011
 

On Sunday at Heinz Field, in the AFC Championship Game the Pittsburgh Steelers will battle against the New York Jets and CBS will broadcast this match at 6:30 pm ET.

The over/under total at 39 and NFL Odds have the Steelers as a 3-point favorite.

In the past seven meetings the Steelers are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS. Out of the seven, five past meetings have gone under the total.

The Jets beat the Steelers 22-17, when the teams met just last month. As a 4-point road underdog, New York covered and the score sent over the total of 36.

By covering as a 9-point underdog, New York beat the New England Patriots 28-21 on the road and the score went over the total of 45.

On Saturday in an AFC divisional game, the Steelers were a 31-24 winner against AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens. Even as the total score went over the total of 38, they covered the 3.5–point spread as favorites.

Even as Pittsburgh is 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, this season, New York is 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS.

In 9 of the last 11 meetings overall, the total has gone under. In their last 6 meetings at home Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU. In the last 13 meetings the Jets are 4-9 ATS. In nine of the past 11 meetings the total has gone under.

In their last five games overall the Jets are 4-1 SU whereas they are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games on the road. In its last 8 games overall Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU, and is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.

 Posted by IanMind at 2:59 am  Tagged with: , , ,

Sunday Clash Between Seattle Seahawks And Chicago Bears

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Jan 112011
 

On Sunday at Soldier Field, the Chicago Bears will clash with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFL Playoffs.

In NFL Lines, the Bears are a 10-point favorite.

On Saturday, in an NFC Wild Card game Seattle beat the New Orleans Saints 41-36 at home. The score went over the total whereas the Seahawks covered in the match as a 10-point underdog.

Even though the Chicago covered the 11.5-point spread as underdog, they lost 10-3 loser on the road against the Green Bay Packers and the score was under the total.

Chicago is 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS whereas Seattle is 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS.
When playing Chicago, the total has gone over in 5 of Seattle’s last 5 games. In 4 of Seattle’s last 6 games the total has gone over, when playing on the road against Chicago and in 5 of Chicago’s last 6 games, in 9 of Seattle’s last 10 games.

In its last 23 games at home Chicago is 16-7 SU whereas 7-2 SU in its last 9 games overall.

 Posted by IanMind at 1:46 am  Tagged with: , , , ,

New York Giants battle Green Bay Packers

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Dec 242010
 

The New York Giants will take on the Green Bay Packers this weekend. This game will be a “must-win” game for the Packers. They are now just 8-6 on the season and they are in danger of missing the playoffs. The Giants need at least one more win this season in order to ensure their positioning in the playoffs. They are 9-5 on the season after their loss to the Eagles.

The Packers will be the 3 point favorites in this game. The total for the game is currently off.

The Packers lost in a close one against the Patriots last week and need to win out in order to ensure a playoff spot. The Packers may or may not have their starting quarterback available as he is still trying to recover from a concussion sustained in week 14.

The Packers are a great team on both sides of the ball, yet they seem to struggle to win as many games as you’d expect. They will be playing at home in this one. They have won 9 of their last 10 games in Lambeau Field.

The Giants lost in a heartbreaker against the Eagles last week. Their loss last week could play a major role in this game. The Giants were up 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter, yet they managed to lose the game as time expired. Losses like that one can often cause a team to fall into a tailspin.

The Giants need a strong start to this game in order to ensure that they do not continue falling after their loss to Philadelphia.

 Posted by IanMind at 2:31 am  Tagged with: , , ,

This Weekend Baltimore Ravens Will Clash With New Orleans Saints

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Dec 162010
 

This weekend the Baltimore Ravens will face the New Orleans Saints. With a solid the Ravens managed to bounce back last week after losing their 4th game of the season. The Saints look like they may be the team to beat in the NFC as they have now won 6 games in a row.

The total for the game is set at 43.5 whereas in NFL odds the Baltimore Ravens will be the 1.5 point favorites.

On both sides of the ball the Saints strengths lie in the pass. They have the 5th best defense against the pass in the league as well as they have the 3rd best pass offense in the NFL. As the Ravens are much weaker against the pass than they are against the run this year, this will be a tough matchup for them. In order to get things going on the ground, they also really rely on their own passing game.

It seems like the Ravens are very hard to beat when Flacco plays at a high level. They will need him to play like a playoff caliber quarterback in this game. The Ravens should be able to get Ray Rice on track if he can get going. Even though Rice has not been quite what the Ravens hoped for coming into the season, he has been stellar so far.

In this game, look for Boldin and Flacco to try to hook up with reliability. Boldin has made a lot of big plays this season as his favorite receiver. As Derrick Mason has had a solid season, The Saints can’t focus too much on Boldin though.

 Posted by IanMind at 6:33 am  Tagged with: , , , ,

Philadelphia Eagles visit NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys

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Dec 092010
 

The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Dallas Cowboys this weekend on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles have been hot lately and the Cowboys are starting to look like the team that everyone thought they’d be. The Eagles are now 8-4 on the season, while the Cowboys sit at 4-8.

The Eagles will be the 3 point favorites in NFL Betting. The total for the game is at 51.

The Cowboys managed to play spoiler last week for the Indianapolis Colts and will continue to try to assume that role against the Eagles. The Colts were dropped to 6-6 as the Cowboys forced 4 interceptions on defense.

The Eagles can expect the Cowboys to come out with an aggressive attack against Vick as they try to pressure him the way that they pressured Manning.

The Eagles will need to establish the running game early on in this game. While Vick will definitely produce some rushing yards throughout the game, the team needs McCoy to step up early. The team averages 144 yards per game on the ground. This ground game really allows the Eagles to spread the field and take advantage of the speed that they have on offense.

The Eagles are 4-1 in their last 5 games, but they have struggled recently against the Cowboys. The Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams. The Cowboys may not have a real shot at making the playoffs, but you can expect them to come out hard against every team to try to upset their playoff chances.

 Posted by IanMind at 2:24 am  Tagged with: , , ,

Baltimore Ravens Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – AFC North Rival Battle

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Dec 042010
 

On Sunday Night Football action, in AFC North rivals matchup, the Baltimore Ravens will lock horn with the Pittsburgh Steelers and NBC will broad cast the match at 8:20 pm ET.

Both these teams have the match winning capability and this is going to be an excellent game. Earlier in the season both these teams already faced each other whereas by a score of 17-14 this game went in favor of the Ravens.

The total for the game is sitting at 40 and in NFL Odds the Ravens will be the 3-point favorites.

In terms of their output of points and their defensive points allowed both these teams have been approximately equal. Since these teams grind it out you can expect this game to be close from start to finish as they have even combined with an equal record on the season.

Finding a gap in the run defense of the Steelers will be the key for the Ravens. By just allowing 64 yards for each game on the ground they have been amazing this season. In order to open up the passing game the Ravens require a ground game. They will actually be in a strong spot in this one if they cannot get yards on the ground.

The health condition of Roethlisberger will be the key for the Steelers. He may not be healthy enough to make the blow that he would like to in this game as he has been wearing a boot on his foot during the week. The Ravens could take benefit of the injury of Roethlisberger as they have a fast, strong defense.

Even though they have actually struggled when playing in Baltimore, Pittsburgh has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams on the whole. The Ravens have not lost a game at home on the season and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games against Pittsburgh.

 Posted by IanMind at 2:09 am  Tagged with: , , , ,
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